Supply-side disruptions and resumption expectations are in a tug-of-war, the most-traded SHFE tin contract continues to fluctuate considerably [SMM Tin Futures Review]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on April 23, 2025

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) fluctuated considerably today. After opening, it once surged to 259,400 yuan/mt, but market sentiment turned cautious due to the US's announcement of additional tariffs on solar products from four Southeast Asian countries. Some bulls took profits, causing the price to pull back to around 258,670 yuan/mt during the session. In the afternoon, SHFE tin prices hit bottom and rebounded, eventually closing at 259,320 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 0.17% compared to the previous day's settlement price.

US Policy Disturbances Intensify Macro Pressure

Tariff Hike Impacts New Energy Demand Expectations: The US's announcement of additional tariffs on solar products from four Southeast Asian countries directly suppressed demand expectations in the PV industry chain. Tin usage in PV welding strips accounts for about 15% of domestic consumption growth, and policy risks have led to market concerns about limited future tin demand expansion.

Uncertainty in US Fed Policy: Although Trump stated he has no intention of firing Powell, he continues to pressure the US Fed to cut interest rates. The US dollar index rebounded to a one-week high, suppressing prices of dollar-denominated commodities.

Supply-Side Disturbances and Resumption Expectations in Play

Resumption of Operations at the Bisie Tin Mine in the DRC: The resumption of operations at the Bisie tin mine in the DRC has alleviated previous supply disruptions caused by armed conflicts. It is expected that ore supply tightness will marginally ease in the future.

Spot Market Transactions Diverge: The pullback in tin prices stimulated some companies to stockpile at low levels, but traders reported that transactions were mainly small orders of 1-2 trucks, indicating that the market still resists high prices.